For years, we have all been hearing how Mobile Video would soon breakthrough and become a major part of our media consumption habits.  And yet, for most of us, it’s rarely or ever something we use.  So the question is, "Why aren’t we adopting Mobile Video at the rates we’re expected to?"

Last night at dinner some friends and I surmised the following, and I wonder if you agree.  Mobile Video is a "Supply-Side" product.  Some of the most powerful brands and industries – Mobile Carriers, Broadcasters, Sports Leagues, Ad Agencies and Media Distributors – would absolutely love if we were never disconnected from highly visual mediums where ads can be placed, or content can be charged for.  There is a wealth, or excess supply, of content out there, and the only thing holding back their revenues is our ability to escape from that content.  So of course, they look at us and say, "When Andy leaves his Living Room, we need a way that he can keep watching TV." 

But very few of us look at our phone – which is our telecommunications device – and say, "Damn, it sucks that I can’t watch TV on this."  Now, I have a high DEMAND for a phone that I can take with me wherever I go.  I have similar high DEMAND for Text Messaging, a car that runs, laptops I can take anywhere, online services I can use to order anything, and hundreds of other things that I can’t make it through the week without.

But television on my phone? I don’t really demand that.  I understand it’s available.  I think it’s cool that it’s available.  But I can’t think of a reason that I would demand it be available.

And I think that is the crux of the mobile video problem.  The marketing campaigns are awesome.  The technology is cool.  I trust the people bringing it to me.  And I love the shows that are available.  But those are all supply issues.  Until there’s a demand scenario that makes sense for me, I think it will continue to languish. 

And so, as we head toward potential Web 2.0 bubbledom and a possible recession, I’m putting all companies into these two categories.  Which companies are trying to create their own market out of an excess supply of something, and which companies are providing products and services that fill an already establish demand? I think the demand side companies will survive whatever economic blip we run into.