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Author Archives: Andy
My Ridiculous and Unsubstantiated Prediction for How the Region Gets NBA and NHL Teams
(Part 1 of a Series)
So let me preface this. I have no inside information. I know nothing, have talked to no one I reference and have absolutely no reason to believe any of what I am going to write is going to happen. It’s purely a wild speculation that will be fun to look back on if 10% of it comes true.
The overarching point is this: Bellevue is going to get an NBA and NHL team, and it’s going to start playing around 2015. Here are some details of this ridiculous notion.
1) The rich people who want an NBA team back here have figured out how to change the conversation. They are working to change the question from, “Should we or shouldn’t we have a World Class arena” to “Should our World Class Arena be in Seattle or Bellevue.” It’s a fantastic tactic. Get two equally powerful groups to wage a battle against each other.
2) Once you convince Bellevue that Seattle wants an Arena, the politicians in Bellevue start making things happen. It’s a once in a century opportunity that people with power can’t pass up. Seattle is at best in a plateau, and possibly declining in economic importance. Bellevue has Microsoft, Expedia, a financial district, a huge shopping district, and the chance to recruit over any of the major tech companies with small offices in Seattle. Insert a world class arena and you could make an argument that we call the region Seattle-Tacoma-Eastside. It could even be considered like the Twin Cities. Bellevue will do its part to make the Arena happen for the promise of concerts, the Republican National Convention, the Democratic National Convention, NCAA Sweet 16 games, the NCAA Women’s Final 4, NHL All-Star game and all the Justin Bieber you can take.
3) Now the mechanics. Let’s pick Anschutz Entertainment Group as the private sponsor who recognizes that a privately funded arena, backed by an Entertainment Group, can be hugely profitable. So Arena issue solved, provided they get tenants.
4) Tenant 1: The Tampa Bay Lightning move to Seattle. The Lightning were recently bought by a Harvard Biz School Investment Banker Jeffrey Vinik. Investment bankers keep score in dollar signs. And the CEO and minority owner of the Lighting is former Seahawks CEO Tod Liewicki. He knows this area. He’s bringing the team back here to share the spotlight with…
5) Tenant 2: Everyone knows this one. Steve Balmer leads the ownership group of the new NBA team. This happens once David Stern announces his retirement. Once the new guy steps in, he’ll need to make a bold move that gets his regime off on the right foot. And what would make him more popular with owners than to rip out a franchise that is losing money (ie the Hornets) and make the owners a bunch of money by selling it to a big city in a new arena with a Billionaire owner. Easy win.
6) A small thing to consider: The new light rail through Bellevue hits all the major MSFT headquarters, with a mysterious loop through a dead region of Bel-Red. Welcome to the future home of the new stadium.
That’s all I have towards this for now. More ideas to come later…
What’s your “Pinnion” on the BCS
Gary Danielson’s BCS Idea
I have to say, I really like Gary Danielson’s BCS idea. I could try to explain it in words, but since Gary explained it this weekend, thanks to the magic of digital recording, you can watch it here. (Apologies that CBS forces you to watch a :15 Lenovo commercial, just gut it out.) I have a few other things to note at the end of the video, so scroll down at the end.
What I’d add to the idea and explanation:
– I’d make the Conference champions the HOSTS of the “Quarterfinal Games” and make Wildcards go on the road.
– In this scenario, the “Quarterfinal” games would be played this weekend. It would probably be something like Oregon, Wisconsin, Alabama and Stanford or Boise St. So for fun, your home games would be something like Alabama at Oregon and Stanford (or BSU) at Wisconsin. Are you watching anything this weekend better than those games?
– Now the two losers would still be in BCS Bowl Games, so it really doesn’t mess up anyone’s New Year’s plans. Oregon fans just wouldn’t know where they were flying until this Sunday. But they’d still have 3 weeks to plan their trip.
– The two semi-final games would be Bowl Games. So you’d have LSU vs Stanford/BSU/Wisconsin in the Sugar Bowl and Oklahoma State vs Oregon/Alabama in the Orange or Fiesta Bowl.
– The final game is played a week later.
This is a pretty genius scenario because it solves most of the issues with a playoff. 1) You only add 2 games TOTAL to the schedule and they are home games for 2 teams so there’s no problem filling the stadium. 2) You don’t mess up anyone’s Bowl trips, so college Presidents still get to take their big donors out to *ahem* dinner in Florida, Phoenix, LA and New Orleans. 3) There’s still the human element and we get to yell and scream about whether Boise St, Stanford, Kansas St. or Virginia Tech should have gotten that 6th seed. 4) You don’t extend the season any further. This years BCS Title game is Jan 9 for Christ’s sake. 5) It moves the New Year’s Day games back to *gasp* New Year’s Day. 6) It keeps the regular season super relevant, AND makes the Conference Championships important.
I think it’s a cool solution. Thoughts?
My $.02 on this year’s BCS
I don’t like teams from Oklahoma. I root against any team that Clay Bennett may possibly want to support. That’s what makes this so hard for me to say.
Oklahoma State deserves to play LSU for the BCS title.
That actually hurt me to say.
Now, do you remember the old days, when there was no overtime? In that situation, LSU and Alabama Version 1.0 would have ended 6-6. Both teams would have ended the season 12-0-1. It would be clear that we needed another 60 minutes to settle things.
However, we have overtime. We have Conference Championship games. And we have Conference champions.
Now, I would argue that the SEC Championship was a farce caused by the impractical practice of artificially manufacturing a divisional split of East vs West or North vs South. What we should have had in the SEC was SEC #1 play SEC #2. LSU vs Alabama for the SEC Championship. Winner goes to the BCS. That’s real drama. (For the record, we also saw this play out in the Pac-12. We should have seen Stanford at Oregon, not UCLA at Oregon. The divisional thing is just dumb.)
But we didn’t have that. The SEC created their rules, and their rules caused Alabama to be shut out of their own Conference Championship game. So Alabama should feel aggrieved, upset and annoyed, but they should be taking their case up with their Conference while they prep for the Sugar Bowl or whatever their best option for a non-BCS title would be.
Meanwhile…
- – Oklahoma St won their conference. Granted, the Big 12 without Nebraska isn’t the same, but it isn’t Conference USA or the Mountain West. They are a Conference Champion from a top 4 Conference.
- – Alabama has already lost to LSU. Stanford lost to Oregon who lost to LSU.
- – Boise State and Houston had to go 13-0 for any legitimate claim.
- – The other Top 4 Conference Champions have 2 losses (Oregon and Wisconsin).
So, in lieu of 2 undefeated teams, Oklahoma State is the only 1 loss Conference Champion from a Top 4 Conference.
Alabama fans – you had your chance. You actually had two chances if you count Overtime as a redemption. You blew them both. You should be out.
We should be seeing LSU vs Oklahoma State.
So What is the Next Xbox/Sounders Sponsorship Worth?
It’s hard to think back to 2008, back before the Seattle Sounders officially existed in anything more than everyone’s imagination.
The Sounders were to become the 16th team in a league with a couple of marquee names in David Beckham and Landon Donovan. LA, DC and Toronto were the only teams to draw more than 18k fans a game.
So when the Sounders announced that Xbox was going to commit $20 Million bucks to the team and the league, it really seemed like – and was – a large sum of money to risk.
But now as we look at the end of the 3rd year of the deal, it’s the Sounders who can’t wait for the contract to expire. Unfortunately for them, they still have 2 more years of the deal. When you look back, the Xbox media team made a heck of a deal.
At $20 Million over 5 years, you are looking at a deal that is only $4 million a year. For that 4 million Xbox got rights to the front of the jerseys, signage in all MLS stadiums, naming rights to Xbox Pitch at Qwest (then Century Link) Field, and TV spots on all broadcasts.
Let’s look at some of the other deals in the MLS (sourced from The Brotherly Game):
So if we assume the national value to the Sounders sponsor is roughly the same as the value any other team’s sponsor receives, the delta is in the value at home. So lets say maybe 1/2 – 2/3 the value is in national exposure, and 1/3 – 1/2 is in local. If that’s the case, then the national value is about $2 million for each team.
So in those terms, the local value of DC United’s sponsorship would be about $1 Million per year. For Salt Lake, it’s $3 Million per year. Now the 38,500 fans per game in Seattle just about doubles everyone but the #2 LA Galaxy at 23,000 per game. So if the Sounders drive 2x more fans than Salt Lake, and 2x the TV impressions, you’d have to estimate the local value is at least $6 Million per year (2x Salt Lake).
There are probably more scientific ways to figure this out, but we don’t have access to impression volumes, jersey sales and hard stats. And we haven’t included the premium that Xbox pays for being the local guys recruiting employees, and the international value of having the team play across Central America and Mexico, or the fact that they’ve gotten a smoking deal the last 3 years.
So let’s ballpark a number of $9 Million per year to start the new deal in 2014. ($2 Million National Value, $6 Million Local value, $1 Million Premium.) How does that look?
Do You Do Anything to Drive Customers Away?
Quite often in marketing, we focus on the “Acquisition” aspect of the formula. How do we make someone aware of what we’re selling and then get them to buy it? And usually, the marketing team will get laser focused about the campaigns they are running, evaluating whether those campaigns are being successful.
But only the savvy marketer will audit the entire company. Is there anything else going on in any other division, where customers are literally being driven away?
Let’s take a personal example. Years and years ago I bought an Acura from Acura of Seattle. No, out of good marketing, personal laziness or just because I don’t know any better, whenever I need something fixed, or just to buy a certain part, I call Acura of Seattle. The number is even in my Contacts List. (Well, it was. Not anymore. Thanks Apple. Different story.)
So I need a simple part, so I call the guys down at Acura of Seattle. They don’t have the part, but it can be there in a few days. No big deal. Inconvenient, but not inconvenient enough for me to go looking somewhere else. But then comes the kicker.
Acura of Seattle: “We’ll need you to come down and pay for it in person, then we can have it sent to you.”
Andy: “I’ll just give you my credit card over the phone.”
Acura of Seattle: “Can’t do that. Need you to drive down to Tukwila and pay in person, then we’ll ship you the part.”
Andy (Staring at phone): “Or I can call Acura of Bellevue.”
And so I call Acura of Bellevue. They need to order the part as well, but tell me to just come in tomorrow and it’ll be there for me. Done deal.
So when it comes time for me to buy a new car, it really doesn’t matter what kind of clever marketing campaign Acura of Seattle throws at me. Facebook, Twitter, Direct Mail, it really doesn’t matter. All I’ll really remember is that Acura of Seattle wanted me to drive to Tukwila for no reason and Acura of Bellevue was helpful.
Moral for the marketers: Find out if other parts of the company are crushing your campaigns…
Rich Barton Urges Seattle to Think Huge
(Note: Most of this is also reposted at the Social3i.com blog)
Working in an emerging industry like social media, and with clients from Microsoft down to small startups, we’re in a unique position to see a ton of entrepreneurial start-ups. We play with tools from Simply Measured and Visible Technologies, work with WordPress Plug-ins and developers, and see everything from new Facebook radio applications to sports energy drinks.
So, when a publisher like Geekwire sets up a Fireside chat with Rich Barton, it’s kind of a can’t miss event. I’ve seen Rich speak a number of times, and his mantra about online marketing carries with me whenever I see a new business plan. His line is simple to remember and generally dead on: “Whatever can be free will be free, whatever can be found will be found, and whatever can be rated will be rated.”
But last week at Spitfire, Rich added one more message to the Seattle VC and entrepreneurial community. He said (and I paraphrase here), “The problem with the Seattle Entrepreneurial community is that no enough people swing for the home run. It takes just as much energy to walk out of the dugout and bunt as it takes to walk out of the dugout and swing for the fences.”
It’s a fair and accurate comment, and something even more extraordinary when you consider that besides Barton, there are at least 4 or 5 other Seattle based entrepreneurs who went long a decade or more ago:
– Bill Gates, who put a PC on every desktop.
– Howard Schultz, who put a $4.00 cup of coffee in everyone on the planet’s hand.
– Jeff Bezos, who made it possible to buy anything from anyplace, anytime for a market price, and get it delivered almost overnight.
– Paul Allen, whose goals are so big and audacious he probably overshoots them by a few years (ie space travel.)
Barton’s message which every marketer should hear as well – “Pick a Big Hairy Audacious Goal and don’t surround yourself with any team members who don’t think that big. People have an amazing capacity to do huge things if a huge goal is set before them.”
It seems like a good lesson for all of us in either digital marketing or entrepreneurship.
Recapping NWEN’s First Look Forum 2011
I always enjoy attending business plan events such as NWEN’s First Look Forum, the UW Biz Plan Competition, Startup Riot, etc… I tend not to call them competitions, and lean towards words like “showcases.” Sure the teams may be competing for a prize, but what they are really doing is showing the public the amount of work they’ve done on taking an idea from imagination to execution.
The real inspiring part of days like this is to see people striving to reach or exceed what is generally concluded as their “potential.” For every 100 people sitting in Westlake Park complaining that the world is unfair and out to get them, there was 1 person in the NWEN First Look Forum pitching an idea that they believed would create jobs and money. If I had my way, that would be the 1% / 99% ratio we should be trying to change.
This was the first year I was involved with a team (Relaborate) that made it through the process, even succeeding down to the final 5 companies. And now I’l use the term “competitor” because from the team’s viewpoint, making it from 37 to 20 to 12 to 5 really is a gauntlet, and you do feel a measure of success each time your name is called to advance.
But when you look at the other 11 companies, you can’t call it a competition, because I don’t know how any consumer would ever be making a choice between any of our products.
- BAM Testing, What’s your athletic potential.
- FanZappy, “Social-to-Store” service attracts social fans to local businesses and further converts fans to repeat in-store customer via our mobile app.
- Glacier Peak, Nature does nothing uselessly.
- Green Simian, Renewable Mobile Power.
- Grid Mobility, Connecting Power to People.
- Lacuna Systems, Expert Web Performance Management.
- MotoVolta, Inc., High Performance Electric Motorcycles.
- Mountain Logic, Halves heating and cooling costs for 100 million homeowners with central forced air by only conditioning occupied rooms.
- Phytelligence, Smarter plants.
- ProtoSec, Creating the next wave of Internet and Web vulnerability detection giving enterprise customers novel and low-cost vulnerability information about their applications, helping them meet compliance and security requirements.
- Radiate, The Future of Internet Radio.
- Relaborate, Blogging Made Easy.
But no matter what, here are 12 people – from an original list of 37 – who are attempting to build and create jobs, not protest that no one is creating jobs for them. Maybe not all of these will turn a “profit” some day, but if you are looking for ways to stimulate an economy, I think these are the kinds of events and people you should be investing in. They may not all show a return, but at least there’s a chance.
Kasey Keller’s 4 Save Extravaganza (In Case You Missed It)
Sorry for the poor quality from the clip I’m borrowing. But if you haven’t ever seen a goalkeeper make 4 saves in 20 seconds, in front of 64,000 people, with his team already down 1-0, check out this sequence.