At last count, there have been roughly 32,342 signings in the NFL in the last 3 days.  However, in the soccer community, there was just one signing – and it was bigger than all of those combined.

Why the magnitude? While these NFL signings are all designed to make a team better this year, and maybe next year, the USA just put pen to paper on a plan to make their soccer program not just relevant, but highly competitive in the 2018 World Cup in Russia.

2018, you ask? How does that work?

After years of trying, the U.S. finally convinced Jürgen Klinsman to come take over the entire US National Program.  This is the guy the U.S. wanted in 2006 after he led the German team to the World Cup semifinals.  But the U.S. Soccer Federation only wanted to let him run the Men’s National Team, while reportedly he wanted to overhaul the entire way we teach soccer in this country.  His point was simple – I can’t be successful coaching the top level team if you give me a system that doesn’t produce elite players.

So, it took 5 years, but someone at US Soccer finally figured out something that we all have known for years.  Our current system of developing the suburban rich kids who don’t play football and basketball, putting them in a system where you have to pay to play for elite coaching, and then grooming them into an army full of hustle and grind midfielders with no striking ability, makes it hard to beat teams with players like Messi and Ronaldo.

So Klinsman is here to teach us the German Way of soccer.  This is better than trying to install the Barcelona Way, or the Brazilian Way.  The U.S. youth soccer system is full of kids that look like German kids.  So the German Way should be teachable.

It will be unfair to grade Klinsman on his performance in the 2014 World Cup.  But keep on eye on how the US Under 20 team does in the next 4 years.  Then let’s get excited and have high hopes for 2018.

Check out SoccerByIves for a detailed story.

Ok, I’ve had 24 hours to be mad about about this.  It’s easy to say, “The vote was rigged.  Qatar and Russia bought the Cups.”  And while that’s probably true, I don’t think you can just end the conversation there.

For one thing, we’re a country in which college alumni will pay $200k to have a 20 year old quarterback come play for their school.  It’s not as if we’re above the whole corruption thing.  If the World Cup was up for sale, we were certainly making our own backroom deals.  So let’s not pretend we’re innocent angels who weren’t prepared to fight dirty.

Also, we need to look at FIFA.  This is an organization that oversees soccer confederations on 6 continents and hosts 12 different soccer tournaments across the globe. Sponsors include companies like Budweiser, Adidas, Coca-Cola, Emirates, etc… Source: Wikipedia.  This is a huge company.  They aren’t just running the Poinsettia Bowl and taking bribes to give Notre Dame a bid.  This is a multi-national, multi-billion dollar organization, whose chief motivation is to make make money for everyone involved in the group.  So, for the sake of argument, let’s assume these guys aren’t idiots.

So, making these assumptions that we were ready and prepared to bribe officials, and that FIFA is made up of smart guys, why did England and the US get shunned?  Here are some reasons I can imagine:

1) The U.S. story is old – Look, I love Morgan Freeman too.  And Bill Clinton has charm.  But we came out with the message of, “Look we have a lot of stadiums already, and lots of hotels too.  Plus, we have a diverse population.  It’s a slam dunk, no risk, low-hanging fruit alternative.”  It’s kind of the same argument the Hyatt gives you when you are planning a wedding. “Look, we have a big boring conference room, you can have a choice of steak or chicken, and there will be plenty of parking for the guests.”  Not very interesting.  Meanwhile Qatar came in with an entirely new message. “Sure we have no stadiums and no infrastructure.  But we have money – and lots of it.  So we’ll build shiny new carbon neutral, solar powered, soccer specific stadiums that we’ll take down after the event, hook them up to a futuristic transportation system, and develop a giant version of Sim City that the world will marvel at.  Think Disney World for Soccer.”  That really is a more interesting wedding than one at a hotel.

2) The Perceived Decline of the West – These games are being held in 2018 and 2022, not 2010.  And the rest of the world looks at the U.S. and says, “Hmm, I don’t see where they are making their comeback.”  I mean when the city of Detroit is eating itself block by block to get rid of unused buildings, I’m not sure where you see that the U.S. is a solid bet to be thriving in 2022.  Meanwhile, Qatar and Russia have all that gas and oil money.

3) The Nobel Prize Angle – On one hand, I kind of think FIFA should be congratulated for taking such a giant risk.  They are telling a country in the Middle East that they have faith in the region.  Now, at least someone has the responsibility for keeping the lunatics at bay.  Anyone involved with the 2022 World Cup, especially Qatar’s Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, will have Mid East leaders on speed dial every time they start to get itchy trigger fingers.  If the World Cup brings some level of stability to the Mid East, which in turn brings some sort of cooperation between West, East and Mid East, then give Blatter and his guys the Nobel Prize.  

4) We don’t have the most money anymore – Let’s face it, this election was bought.  And that’s an election style we used to like, because we had the most money.  We don’t anymore.  This is an international economics story, not a sports story.  Maybe now we can admit it’s time to change the way we do things.

I’m sure I’ll add to this post soon.

(Additions)

5) One thing that surprises me is that FIFA has now made it impossible for China to get a World Cup until at least 2034.  And who knows what the world will look like by then.  

6) JR makes a good point below that diversification could be a reason.  But, diversification doesn’t explain going all the way to the limit of Qatar.  You could have solved the diversification point with any of the candidates – Australia, Spain/Portugal or Netherlands/Belgium.  

7) To expand on a point I was trying to make above, it’s an absolute pity that the U.S. couldn’t make any kinds of claims to have carbon-neutral stadiums and an efficient transportation system 12 years from now.  Doesn’t that seem weird and sad that it doesn’t even cross our minds that we could lead the world in architectural and transportation innovation?

If you are downtown tomorrow morning at 6:30am, I suggest you swing by FX McCrory’s.  There, Mick will be serving breakfast and hosting a live viewing of the selection of the host countries of the 2018 and 2022 World Cups.  RSVP here. 

This should be exciting and slightly nerve-wracking for everyone hoping the U.S. is chosen for 2022.  It’s been a pretty dirty selection process thus far, so even though common sense says that the United States would be a better host than Qatar, well, money talks and Fifa’s selection committee members are human beings who like money and the items money buys.

If you want to watch the US Presentation, lead by President Bill Clinton, you can watch it here.  (Sounders fans, skip ahead to 16:45 or so if you want to see how Seattle is presented as a sign of soccer’s growth in the US.)

http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/bidders/live/newsid=1343822/index.html

Well the U.S. World Cup team is out.  Sad day last Saturday.  

But thankfully, a combination of high drama, strong ESPN/ABC coverage and a Saturday afternoon match provides a nice segue from soccer stories back into the world of marketing.

According to TVBytheNumbers.com:

The 2010 NBA Playoffs averaged a 3.6 U.S. rating and 5.7 million viewers across ABC, ESPN/ESPN2 and TNT, up 3% in ratings and 5% in viewership from last year (3.5, 5.4 mil), and up 9% and 16%, respectively, from 2008 (3.3, 4.9 mil).  A seven-game NBA Finals more than made up for several sweeps in the second round and consistent declines in the Conference Finals.  

Given those numbers, I was interested to find out how many more people would watch the NBA playoffs than a World Cup soccer game.  Well, according to ESPN:

Saturday’s game, which began at 2:30 p.m. EDT on ABC, received an 8.2 fast national rating, ESPN said Sunday. It was seen in 9,455,000 households and by 14,863,000 viewers. Only the 1999 Women’s World Cup final, featuring the United States and China at the Rose Bowl, averaged more households (11,307,000) and viewers (17,975,000) for a soccer game. An additional 4.5 million people watched Sunday on the Spanish-language Univision.

Wow.  To put those numbers side by side:

• US vs Ghana Soccer Game: 8.2 rating, 14.9 Million viewers (ABC), 19.4 Million viewers total (ABC+Univision).
• NBA Playoff average: 3.6 rating, 5.7 Million viewers

Now I know it’s not a fair comparison, since the NBA playoffs also included cities like Oklahoma City where only 3,500 of the 10,000 people with electricity actually know how to work their remote control.  So to be fair, here’s data from the most watched basketball games of the year:

• Game 7, NBA Finals: 15.6 rating, 28.2 Million viewers
• Game 6, NBA Finals: 10.4 rating, 18.0 Million viewers.
• Game 5, NBA Finals: 10.8 rating, 18.7 Million viewers.
• Game 4, NBA Finals: 9.9 rating, 16.4 Million viewers.
• Game 3, NBA Finals: 9.6 rating, 16.0 Million viewers.
• Game 2, NBA Finals: 9.2 rating, 15.7 Million viewers.
• Game 1, NBA Finals: 8.6 rating, 14.1 Million viewers.

So the U.S. vs Ghana game comes in just under Game 1 of the NBA finals.  I expect that’s much more than ABC expected.

32 games in.  Everyone has 2 matches under their belt.  A few teams are already thru, a few teams are already out.  So let’s look at how each region has done.

1) Europe

The proud home of former World Cup Champions such as Italy, Germany, France and England.  Plus Spain, Portugal, and others.  The group with the most teams allocated to the tourney – 13.  And they have been an absolute disaster.  Sure, stats wise they may look ok with a combined record of 10-8-8.  But their big guns have all been lackluster.  France has stopped playing, England is asleep, Italy’s effort is unfathomable, and the only team that is unscathed thus far is the Netherlands.  Basically, Europe loses to South America, ties Concacaf, and beats Asia and Africa. Yet still, somehow, almost everyone is still alive, and many will proceed.  They are like watching a really boring movie for 90 minutes because the finale is tremendous.

2) Africa

Poor Africa.  6 teams this year since they are also the host.  And sadly, almost every team has been over matched.  With a record of 1 Win, 4 Draws and 7 Losses, it’s really hard to justify this much African representation.  Especially since the only win came thanks to a penalty.  Quite disappointing since we were all rooting for them.

3) Asia

At 2-3-5 (I’m including New Zealand), this is another group where you have to question why they get so much representation with 5 teams.  Australia’s been unlucky, South Korea crushed Greece, and New Zealand got that tie against Italy.  But really these teams are over-matched.  The only question is why Brazil didn’t run the score up on North Korea.  Maybe Kim Jong Il threatened to test a missile in their direction.  Maybe they paid them.  Maybe Brazil put huge dollars down on 2-1. For whatever reason, the Brazilian team confusingly refused to drub the team like they could have.  Portugal must not have been on the same money line – they crushed North Korea 7-nil.

4) Concacaf

Not a bad showing thus far for our region.  The U.S. has 2 ties vs Europe, and should have a win and a tie. Mexico has a win over France, and their tie came against the host team in the first game.  Unfortunately, Honduras got stuck with Chile and Spain…. Regardless, Concacaf’s 6 points in 6 games is more impressive than Africa’s 7 points in 12 games, or Asia’s 9 points in 10 games.

5) South America

I don’t care who wins the whole thing.  The best soccer/football in the world is coming from South America.  5 teams with 8 WINS, 2 TIES and NO LOSSES.  Africa has 7 points with 6 teams.  South America has 8 WINS.  Unless Paraguay screws it up, all 5 South American teams should advance to the Round of 16.  And remember there was a huge race for 4th, 5th, and 6th place in the qualifying round.  So an extra South American team in the future might not be a bad thing.

So according to the stats form my web host, the more I talk about soccer, the fewer readers I have.  So, I guess every 4 years I’ll just have to deal with a dip in traffic.

For those folks who aren’t International soccer buffs, here’s a quick overview of what has transpired over the first 5 days of the World Cup, and what it means.  (Remember, every one of the 32 teams gets 3 games no matter what.  The top 2 teams in each 4 team division move on to a 16 team single elimination tourney.)

1) Who Exceeded Expectations

• Switzerland (Group H) – No one, and I mean no one, expected Switzerland to beat Spain.  Getting 3 points from that game was gigantic.  You kind of expected that Spain would win all 3 of their games, Honduras would lose all 3 of their games, and the Chile vs Switzerland game would decide second place.  The Swiss win probably puts the most heat on Chile.  This was one of those games where Spain dominated and Switzerland got a pretty lucky goal.  Assuming Switzerland scores against Honduras (no guarantee there) you could see this group end up with 3 teams at 2-1 and Honduras at 0-3.  Then it comes down to Goal Differential.  And so Switzerland is still going to have to find a way to score a goal to advance.
• USA (Group C) – The tie with England was huge for a variety of reasons.  But most importantly, it gives the U.S. a realistic chance of winning the group.  You win Group C, you see Serbia or Ghana in the second round.  You finish 2nd and you see Germany and book your ticket home.  So aside from the whole national pride and an awesome comeback to annoy Englishmen for the next 40 years, this game helped the U.S. with their long shot at winning Group C.
• Ghana (Group D) - Again probably just a slight upset, and it took a stupid penalty to make it happen, but Ghana’s win puts them in nice position.  If they beat Australia, they advance.
• New Zealand (Group F) – New Zealand stinks.  How Slovakia let them get a tie is baffling. 
• Paraguay (Group F) – Italy always under-performs in the opening round.  But Paraguay helped themselves by sneaking out the tie. 
• South Africa (Group A) – Small nod here.  Mexico is not that good, and no host team has ever lost their first game.  But they did get a tie against a team better than them, and put themselves in a spot where no matter what, the 3rd game will matter.
• North Korea (Group G) - They lost to Brazil.  But they only lost 2-1.  I think we were all hoping they would lose 6-0.  

Who Matched Expectations:

• Teams that won who should have: Korea, Argentina, Slovenia, Germany, Netherlands, Japan
• Teams that tied that probably should have: France and Uruguay, Ivory Coast v Portugal
• Teams that lost that you expected to lose: Greece, Nigeria, Algeria, Australia, Denmark, North Korea, Honduras, Cameroon

Who Made the Next Two Games Difficult for Themselves

• France and Mexico – Their fans “expected” them to win their games.  As it stands now, it looks like only the winner of this game will advance.
• England – They *should* beat Slovenia and Algeria.  But if the U.S. does as well, they need to not just win, but win by more goals than the U.S.
• Italy – Typical, but now they can’t mess up.
• Spain – Tough loss since they dominated the game.  But they should still beat Chile and Honduras to advance.
• Serbia – It’s hard to lose your first game, still have Germany on your schedule, and expect to advance.

Here’s reaction to the USA v England World Cup Match, from London, thanks to Lisa Miguez.

Two things happened last Friday that many Londoners did not expect.

First, the Global Naked Bike Ride came to town, weaving in all its naked glory by Trafalgar Square and Big Ben. The tourists were a happy lot

Second, England tied with the USA. The locals were not a happy bunch to say the least.

There is this never wavering belief that flows through England during the World Cup that this will be the year. We can do it this time. This team has what it takes. Sure there are naysayers, but the majority truly believe this will be England’s year. Until they don’t win a game. Last Friday I was at a BBQ in East London with equal parts Americans, British and Canadians. Us Canadians decided it be best to act like Switzerland and be neutral. Though the Queen is still officially our head of state, after beating the US team for Gold in the Olympics, many of us think the US deserves the World Cup to keep the next big piece of gold on the sports market in North America. The Americans cheered, the English made excuses, the Canadians made cocktails (to both celebrate and drown sorrows). After hearing the goalie apologise for his mistake, the English perked up, commenting that the team will do better, that this is ‘their year’.

Interestingly it has not been England’s year since 1966. They are in essence the underdogs. Taking the late night bus home on Saturday people were still talking about how it could happen, England could still win the cup. This week, they put it down to a slow start and the team finding their feet. Yes there was sadness and disappointment after the game, but overwhelmingly hope. It is a emotion that is running high across the many nations in London. Each day I have gone downstairs to check out the 12:30 UK time game no matter who is playing. The cafeteria is packed, people are showing their colors. And are cheering for their chosen side, hopeful that they will make it to the next round. 

This week I am going to watch the next England game from Florida. May try to catch the US game down there too. I am hopeful that both teams will progress. Though in England’s case, I am also hoping that none of their games go to penalty shoot outs…historically speaking that has been the demise of many a past England team. I suspect many a Londoner is also hoping the same thing – oh and that their goalie can keep his hands on the ball. 

News of the WorldNews of the WorldDaily MailThe Sun

(My friend Lisa is a Canadian who has lived in the UK since attending grad school in Manchester.  She sends some notes from her adopted homeland as they prep for the World Cup.)

It all started out very innocently. A car flag waving on a black cab. The occasional overheard office discussion as to who would ‘make the team’. The arguments about why (or why not) to support England between the English, Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish.

Yesterday something changed. No fewer than six requests to join Work Cup pools ended up in my inbox. One even sponsored by the large American company that I work for. We even received an email letting us know that in all our offices the soccer (I mean football) games will be shown in the employee cafeteria for people to watch during their breaks. Good thing we have wireless in our building.

This morning as I looked out my apartment window to the big estate across, overnight all the balconies have been decorated with St. Georges cross flags and red and white balloons. Yes, World Cup fever is alive and well in London.  It is though, a different vibe than what I experienced in Manchester in 2006. In the shadow of old Trafford, football fanaticism reached unbelievable highs (and lows) – and all in the name of Mother England. London is different. While talk of England’s ability to pull off a shocking victory dominate, in this multicultural city talk often turns to other countries – the Italians I work with curse Cappello ; the French avoid any discussions of a repeat performance by Thierry Henry of his infamous  qualifying round ‘incident’; and the Brazilians push aside any claim that they have lost their groove.

Every pub, on every corner has a billboard proclaiming that they are showing all the World Cup games – beer specials and world cup ‘pies’ are on the menu. As the buzz builds to kick-off, anything is possible. The crowds are assembling, and the lager taps are at the ready. The South Africans are out in force blowing their Vuvuzela horns (a marching band styled group just walked by my office on Buckingham Palace Road – maybe they are off to entertain the queen who is in town).

The only thing missing this year is an official England World Cup song. My recommendation for those nostalgic for the cheesy cheers is definitely World in Motion by England New Order (yes, Manchester’s New Order) ….We’re playing for England (En-ger-land), we’re playing the song. We’re singing for England (En-ger-land), arrivederci its one on one….

Yes. I will be cheering for my adopted home….now where did I put my pint.