I’ve been doing this long enough to spot the pattern.
In the late 1990s, I worked at Progressive Networks, which changed its name to RealNetworks. We were pioneers and created ways for companies to navigate the shift to video on the internet. Not everyone survived. The ones who did weren’t necessarily the best videographers. They were people who understood what video meant for storytelling and user behavior and how the internet was going ot expand that audience.
Then came mobile in the mid-2000s. iPhone. Android. Suddenly everyone needed an app. I helped clients figure out what that meant for their business. Again, success didn’t go to the best coders. It went to people who understood what a pocket-sized screen changed about how people consumed content.
Social media followed in the early 2010s. Facebook ads. Instagram. Twitter. I saw the same pattern repeat itself. The tool-masters struggled while strategic thinkers adapted to what it meant to let customers suddenly have access to your executives, and the way to broadcast to millions without your PR team being involved.
Now we’re in shift number four: AI.
And honestly? It’s the same movie playing again. Just different special effects.
The Part Everyone Gets Wrong
When a new technology arrives, companies make the same mistake every time. They ask, “Who knows how to use this tool?”
That’s the wrong question.
The right question is, “Who understands what this changes about how we work?”
Harvard’s Division of Continuing Education nailed it recently: “Your job will not be taken by AI. It will be taken by a person who knows how to use AI.” Harvard DCE
But here’s what they didn’t say. Knowing how to use AI isn’t really about prompts or platforms. It’s about judgment.
What I Mean by Judgment
Let me be specific.
In the video era, judgment meant knowing which stories worked on a screen versus in print. It meant recognizing when a talking head would bore people and when it would build trust.
In the mobile era, judgment meant understanding that people hold phones one-handed. That attention spans shrink when you’re waiting in line. That “mobile-friendly” isn’t just smaller fonts.
In the social media era, judgment meant knowing the difference between engagement and actual results. Between viral and valuable. Between a metric that looked good in a deck and one that actually moved the business.
Now, in the AI era, judgment means something new but equally critical. Can you tell when AI output is good enough, when it’s garbage, and when it’s brilliant but needs one human touch to actually work?
The Pattern Across All Four Shifts
Here’s what I’ve noticed across three previous waves and now this fourth one.
Struggle comes to those who built their careers on being “the person who knows how to do the thing.” The Photoshop expert. The videographer. The social media manager who knows all the Instagram hacks.
Success goes somewhere else entirely. To people who might not be the best at any single tool, but who know what good looks like. Who understand audiences. Who can spot the difference between clever and effective. Their value sits in strategic thinking, not technical execution.
Technology has always punished those doubling down on HOW and rewarded those focused on WHY.
AI is just doing it faster and louder.
Why This Shift Feels Different
The AI shift has one twist the others didn’t. The barrier to execution is basically gone.
You don’t need to learn Final Cut Pro anymore. You don’t need to understand aspect ratios or frame rates. You don’t need to spend hours cropping images or writing alt text.
AI handles the execution.
Which means (and this is the uncomfortable truth) if your entire value was “I’m the person who can make the thing,” your value just dropped to near zero.
But if your value was “I’m the person who knows what we should make and why,” you just became exponentially more valuable. Because now you can think strategically AND execute at speed.
What Comes Next
Over the next few weeks, I’m going to dig into what this actually means for anyone hiring marketers or anyone trying to get hired.
Spoiler: Most job descriptions are still written for 2019. Most interviews are still testing for the wrong skills. Most marketers are positioning themselves around tools that won’t matter in 18 months.
We’ll fix that.
But first, understand this. AI isn’t the story. It’s never been the story.
The story is always about who adapts and who doesn’t. Who builds their career on judgment instead of just execution.
I’ve lived through this movie three times already.
I know how it ends.