Is Mobile Video “Supply Side” Product Development?

For years, we have all been hearing how Mobile Video would soon breakthrough and become a major part of our media consumption habits.  And yet, for most of us, it’s rarely or ever something we use.  So the question is, "Why aren’t we adopting Mobile Video at the rates we’re expected to?"

Last night at dinner some friends and I surmised the following, and I wonder if you agree.  Mobile Video is a "Supply-Side" product.  Some of the most powerful brands and industries – Mobile Carriers, Broadcasters, Sports Leagues, Ad Agencies and Media Distributors – would absolutely love if we were never disconnected from highly visual mediums where ads can be placed, or content can be charged for.  There is a wealth, or excess supply, of content out there, and the only thing holding back their revenues is our ability to escape from that content.  So of course, they look at us and say, "When Andy leaves his Living Room, we need a way that he can keep watching TV." 

But very few of us look at our phone – which is our telecommunications device – and say, "Damn, it sucks that I can’t watch TV on this."  Now, I have a high DEMAND for a phone that I can take with me wherever I go.  I have similar high DEMAND for Text Messaging, a car that runs, laptops I can take anywhere, online services I can use to order anything, and hundreds of other things that I can’t make it through the week without.

But television on my phone? I don’t really demand that.  I understand it’s available.  I think it’s cool that it’s available.  But I can’t think of a reason that I would demand it be available.

And I think that is the crux of the mobile video problem.  The marketing campaigns are awesome.  The technology is cool.  I trust the people bringing it to me.  And I love the shows that are available.  But those are all supply issues.  Until there’s a demand scenario that makes sense for me, I think it will continue to languish. 

And so, as we head toward potential Web 2.0 bubbledom and a possible recession, I’m putting all companies into these two categories.  Which companies are trying to create their own market out of an excess supply of something, and which companies are providing products and services that fill an already establish demand? I think the demand side companies will survive whatever economic blip we run into.

How Many Customer Service Opportunities Are Airlines Missing?

When you think of industries with technological tools at their disposal, but that go unused in the realms of customer service and consumer experience, the airline industry really does stand apart.

Think about this. These guys all know the exact number of people who will be getting on their planes. They know where everyone is sitting, and exactly what time the plane will sneak away from the gate and into a line ready for takeoff. Yet somehow, none of that knowledge makes it to the marketing or customer relations people.

Here are 3 things that I think would improve my personal flying experience.

1) Real Time Updates of Security Lines.

Every airline knows how many people are leaving on each plane, and they know which gate each plane is leaving from. Therefore, they know that within a 2 hour period, exactly how many people will need to go through a security checkpoint. They can also look back at past data and see how many people went through that checkpoint a day ago, a week ago, a month ago and a year ago. And they know how many people will be working. Based on this, they should have no problem giving you an estimate of how long it should take to get through security. They should be able to show averages over periods of time, as long as a fairly real time estimate of how the day is going in comparison to other days. This will give me a much better idea of what time I really need to be there.

2) Let Me Choose My Seat Based on Who’s on the Plane.

I’m sure this will get the privacy advocates in an uproar, but I’d love it if I could build a little public profile of myself inside the airline’s account system, or even just let it access my Facebook account. Then when I choose my seat, and I see all the seats available, I know not to choose the one next to the mom with the 2 little kids. Not only that, you can give the kids their own section, in the very back and behind a curtain.

On a different track, another 6 foot guy would know not to choose the seat next to me because we’ll inadvertently be playing footsie all flight long. Plus, if you got really imaginative, you could put in your profile if you are a chatter or a sleeper, so those who like to yak all flight long can be placed on the wing or in the baggage cargo area. If it’s all voluntary and optional, and the technology is there anyway, why not use it? Think about it – if there are 2 seats left to choose from, and one is between two 120 pound women from Thailand, and one is between two 320 pound brothers from Green Bay, I think I should get to make a wise decision on which one I sit in.

3) SMS Updates

I don’t see any reason that I can’t subscribe to SMS updates. Often, a bar or restaurant is far from my gate. Let’s say I’m a considerate flyer, and get there 90 minutes early thinking there’s going to be a security line. But, since there was no line, I slide right through and now have 85 minutes to kill. Well, when they decide the plane is going to leave 30 minutes later, I want to know via SMS while I’m sitting in the restaurant, not after I’ve given up one of 2 power outlets in the whole airport to shlep down to the gate.

I’m sure there are 100 ideas so I’m looking forward to hearing some of yours.

Is Google AdSense Too Scary For Me?

So, I want to be clear that I’m not bashing Google with this question I’m about to pose.  I’m trying to gauge if my reaction borders on paranoia, or if it’s justified.

Here’s the situation.  On Wednesday I was on GoogleChat with a friend who talked about watching the movie "The Big Lebowski" with friends that night.  The next day, Thursday, just about exactly 24 hours later, ads for Big Lebowski T-Shirts showed up in my Google Mail.

To be clear, I am not anti AdSense.  I think it’s great.  Contextual advertising is an amazing advancement.  And I am also not naive.  I know that IM’s do not dissolve into the vapor. I understand that anything I ever put in an IM (or SMS for that matter) is archived forever on someone’s server, poised and ready to ruin any chance I ever had at getting elected to public office.    

But here is my issue, and again, I am asking you if I am over-reacting.  If the ad for Big Lebowski T-Shirts had showed up while we were talking about Big Lebowski, I wouldn’t have blinked.  Even if it showed up in the next hour.  But a full day later hints to me that they have some sort of psychology behind these ads, that they are using some sort of AI to read and analyze everything I type in a day, run it through an algorithm, and shoot me marketing messages that will trigger some sort of recall mechanism from the day before.  I can’t explain why, but that weirds me out.

I know, it’s not enitirely rational.  But something about it doesn’t quite sit right with me.  I guess I feel it starts to open a Pandora’s box.  Sending me a Mariners Ticketmaster ad if I am reading an email about baseball from a Seattle IP Address is one thing.  But building a complete profile about me, keeping track of everything I google, everything I write, everything I receive, and every ad I click on, then throwing specific ads that attempt to predict my behavior or trigger responses….well that borders on invasive.  

Anyway, I’m looking forward to hearing your own thoughts on this.   

 

If the University of Washington Was a Corporation

I hesitate to write this article because I am pressed for time and really want to do a good job on this one.  But the topic is starting to get stale, so I really need to bang it out.

uw2.jpgYou probably heard that the University of Washington fired Athletic Director Todd Turner this week.  It was a mutual decision, but one in which the school will pay him close to half a million dollars a year to NOT come to work anymore, before his contract runs out sometime in 2009. (Someone please tell me how I can get one of these gigs.)

I’m not a rabid Dawg fan or anything, but I do find the scenario fascinating.  Because two weeks ago, this same University made a somewhat controversial non-decision by not firing the football coach they already had.  Then a week later, out of the blue, his boss got the axe instead.  So I want to look at this from a pure business perspective, and analyze this as if the UW was a public corporation.

So, let’s call UW President Mark Emmert the corporation’s CEO. Let’s say the corporation has 3 major divisions – Athletics, Academics and Research.  Todd Turner is the Exec VP of Athletics.  Turner has a bunch of product groups under him, tasked with a number of brand categories.  The Director of Football is Tyrone Willingham.  Willingham has a bunch of Product Managers (his coaches) developing features (the players) for his overall product (the Football team).

Now for a few years now, the product has stunk.  And the main reason the overall product has stunk is that the features have not been all that great.  Willingham was brought in 3 years ago to improve the features and get a better product to market.

Now the shareholders (the alumni) have been getting restless.  They are tired of Oregon and WSU developing better products than them.  They are tired of their grandchildren wanting to buy WSU and Oregon products.  And a few key shareholders have been hinting at investing their money somewhere else.

So the CEO does what every CEO should do.  He asks his Exec VP – "What’s going wrong?"  Turner replies, "The current features are already built so you can’t change them.   The product managers are working hard, so they should keep their job.  And the Director of Football is a great guy who’s really trying hard, so we need to keep him as well." 

 Now the CEO has a problem.   His shareholders are revolting, and his Exec VP has just told him, "Hey man, everything is cool here. Everyone is really trying hard."

The CEO retreats into his office and thinks.  "Well, if this is them trying HARD, what happens if they stop trying?  And why doesn’t my Exec VP seem to care that we never hit our numbers?  Our biggest product in his department is continuing to underachieve, and he’s not mad – in fact he his proud of his guys for trying hard!"

uw1.jpgIn this scenario, the firing of Todd Turner makes perfect sense.  Really, CEO Emmert had no choice.  Underperforming product, no punishment of the low levels of management and no promises of improvement.  The axe had to fall at the top.

Now, college football has different timing than a corporation, but if you follow this analogy, I think it’s easy to imagine that the whole division is going to be "reorganized" sometime after the new boss gets in.

 

Where is news on the Google China Tax Evasion story?

So, here’s something that’s news because there’s no news about it.

On November 19, TechCrunch reported that Google was being investigated by the Chinese government for a number of tax issues, all of which were too difficult for me to understand or techCrunch to analyze or give perspective on.  My initial thought was that this was simply a follow up shot across Google’s bow.

If you remember a few months back, all the U.S. search engines in China had their traffic redirected to sina.com, in what many said was a response to President Bush meeting with the Dali Lama.  So now after a "tip" from someone, the Chinese government is going to fine and/or punish Google for some allegedly shaky financial bookkeeping.

Now if you ask me, when a company has more money than it knows what to do with, cheating a few bucks in taxes in a country it desperately wants to do business in would be downright foolish.  I simply can’t believe Google would purposely do anything improper in dealing with Byzantine Chinese tax laws when they desperately want to do business in this market.  It simply makes no sense for Google to try to cheat the Chinese government out of less than what one of their GM’s is worth in stock options.

But the bigger question for me is, why is TechCrunch the most respected news outlet covering this?  On a search on the terms – Google Tax China – there’s no WSJ, New York Times or even anything from the Bay Area papers.  Why isn’t anyone writing about the Chinese accusing Google of tax improprieties?   Is it part of some U.S. mandate that "We will not question the Chinese government?" 

 

Sonics 2.0

The NBA kicked off season #40 in Seattle last night, in a game notworthy for it’s few absolutes:

  • It wasn’t the actual first game of the year, as the team had played in Denver the night before
  • It may or may not have been the last home opener in team history.
  • They never looked like they would get killed, and never looked liek they would win.
  • The roster is stacked full of people you may have heard of, but wouldn’t recognize if they sat next to you.
  • The arena was almost full
  • The fans didn’t quite know how to root for the players and boo the owners

But that made for an interesting dynamic. Some of the recognizable attractions remain – like Squatch, the Boom Squad and Sonics Dance team. T-Mobile still has big ads and the Dunking Ushers still put on a cool show. But there were no more Starbucks ads, and unless I missed them, the Southwest Airlines promotion seemed to be gone. At least there was no ad for the Stillwater Savings and Loan or Petroleum Workers Union 476.

There were some very noticeable handmade signs that I’m surprised fans were allowed to bring into the arena, including, "Noklahoma" and "Trade Bennett." It certainly would not have been unreasonable for an ownership group to force security to remove signs that denigrade the team or execs.

The loudest roar of the night was not prompted by the scoreboard, Squatch or PA Announcer – it was started by the fans and was simply a cheer of, "Save Our Sonics" that reverberated through the stadium for a few minutes. KJR’s Softy Mahler could be seen in the corner of the stadium taking part, and maybe 10% of the stadium was standing for it. With a little more organization, this cheer could take on a bigger role in future games, much like the "Go" ‘Huskies" cheer at UW shifts from side to side.

And finally, here’s an angle people aren’t writing about. The sales, marketing, admin, HR and other folks who work for the Sonics today are all Seattleites. They don’t want to move to Oklahoma. So you have owners who want to go, fans who want them to stay, employees who want them to stay and players who don’t care.

But one thing that is absolute – Kevin Durant is going to be a stud.

Technology Finally Slows Down the Rockies

Well, they’ve won something like 23 of 24 games, so other teams can’t stop them.  But the Colorado Rockies finally found a nemesis they cound’t vanquish.

According to reports, "on Monday, there were 8.5 million attempts to connect with the computers in the first 90 minutes after sales started, and only several hundred tickets had been sold before the system had to be shut down."

One has to assume many of these 8.5 million attempts are from the automated robots now being used by ticket brokers and resellers.  This indicates the technologies that have been so useful in selling tickets have now become an impediment to getting them to the real fans. 

In fact, the Denver Post reports on the issue, including this section.  "The bots pose a significant challenge to companies such as Ticketmaster, which won an injunction Monday blocking a Pittsburgh software company – RMG Technologies Inc. – from making and distributing such programs.

"We will not allow others to illegally divert tickets away from fans," said Ticketmaster chief executive Sean Moriarty in a statement.

The flooding process has also come under fire from parents trying to purchase "Hannah Montana" concert tickets for their kids, only to learn tickets are sold out minutes after going on sale."

 

U.S. Search Engines Have New Pot Hole in Dance With China

When you have a few billion potential customers living inside your country, and a totalitarian monopoly on who gets to sell to them, you wield quite a bit of power on the global business climate.

Such is the case this week as the government of China is now redirecting searches from Google, Yahoo and Microsoft search engines, and sending them to the China based Baidu.com.

The fact that this action comes about 3 minutes after the Dali Lama received a Congressional Medal of Honor is at best, "sketchy."   

This kind of activity puts American companies in a tough spot.  From everything I know, supporting the Dali Lama is the *right* thing to do.  China is effectively pushing American companies to try to convince the U.S. government to change their chance.  This will not be the last time a U.S. firm is going to have decide on whether they are beholden to shareholder value or global ethics.  Redirecting IP packets is simply the easiest thing China could do.  It will be interesting to see what comes next.