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Category: Business (Page 13 of 24)

Idea for Auto Bailout

This morning I listened to Dave Ross interview Ravi Batra, a professor of Economics and author of The New Golden Age: The Coming Revolution against Political Corruption and Economic Chaos.  Mr. Batra had what I think is a fabulous idea for the automaker bailout.

To summarize, the automakers want $50 Billion to save them.  Batra explains that for about $1 Billion, you could buy 60% of General Motors.  Then you could give all those shares to the UAW to distribute amongst their workers, making every union employee of GM a significant shareholder in the company.  Then, they could decide what woul dbe the best courses of action for the company to take.   

It’s brilliant.  It’s not socialism, because the people would get paid if they created value, and lose their jobs if they wouldn’t.  Plus, it would force the UAW to come to grips and decide whether their policies are good for the companies that employee their members.   I think it’s a great idea.  Too bad it will never be considered…

Mark Cuban vs the SEC

(Parts of post redacted due to learning new information)

A friend asked me my take on the Mark Cuban Insider Trading allegations yesterday.  I realized I didn’t have an opinion yet, and agreed it would make for interesting blog discussion.

If you don’t know the story, go read the report at the Silicon Valley Insider and come on back.

So assuming you have a little background on the situation, I’ll dive right into the initial thoughts that came to mind.

1) $750,000 sure seems like a small amount of money for Cuban to care about.

2) It sounds like the CEO of Momma.com convinced Cuban to buy 6% of the company in March 2004, and then about a month later the same CEO was bringing in a private equity firm which would dilute the shareholders, including Cuban.  If that timeline is accurate, it’s a pretty shady move to pull on your investors, including one who is a billionaire.

3) It also sounds like the CEO kept Cuban in the dark about the dilution until June 28.  So he had about 3 months of telling Cuban, “Oh yeah, everything is fine,” while working with the private equity firm on how to dilute everyone.  Then he calls Cuban on June 28 and said, “By the way, I’m diluting you in a week tomorrow.”

4) Cuban sounds like he was pretty annoyed by this.  And you would be too.  After all, had the CEO not brought Cuban on board as a 6% investor, the equity group may not have been interested in financing the company.  So Cuban may have gotten used by the CEO, and then since the CEO told him about the PIPE, now Cuban was stuck holding shares that he couldn’t get out of.  In his mind, they screwed him going in and now were screwing him from getting out.

5) So, Cuban’s decision at this point seems irrational and not well thought out.  He calls his financial guy and tells him to sell.  At this point, a good financial guy should look at his clock, see it’s late at night and ask why his boss suddenly wants him to stop doing what he was doing and try to unload 600,000 shares of stock in a company no one knows.  Some alarm bell should go off here.  There needed to be a, “Boss.  If the dilution isn’t for a week, lets take 12 hours and look at our options.” (Edit: The PIPE was announced the next day, June 29.)  But the financial guy should still advise him of the issues.

So my analysis:

  • I think anyone who tries to compare this to Wall St fat cats screwing the American consumer in sub-prime lending, is pretty off base.  Just from reading a few articles, I think Cuban was actually the guy screwed by the Wall St guys (the private equity group) and tried to get out of it.  
  • Unfortunately the rules are a little different for people who have conversations with CEO’s than folks like you and me, and he should have just waited for the announcement and sold everything then, taking the $750k hit.  Then he could have used his conections and power to make sure that CEO never got another dime of funding the rest of his life, and the private equity firm was on a giant blackball list.  I mean, he’s probably made 50x that amount on tips and insights from cocktail party conversations with people you and I don’t get to meet. 
  • It does seem like a pretty trivial matter for the SEC to make a big deal of 4 years after the fact.  Anytime a federal or regional judicial branch of government in a hardcore Republican state, sits on something for this long, and then launches it on a guy who helped fund an anti-George Bush movie, I agree that it kind of feels vindictive.
  • In the end, I think Cuban should pay a fine, we should all avoid ever investing in or using Momma.com and someone should ask why it takes the government 4 years to prosecute something like this.

However, this is only my first take, and if new evidence comes out, I’m willing to adjust.   Looking forward to some thoughts from you guys.

President-Elect Obama’s Online Ad Budget

ClickZ has a report that details President-Elect Obama’s online ad buy.  The article has more insights about the $8 million online media plan, but here is a condensed list of who received a little change:

  • Google: $3.5 million
  • Yahoo: $673,000
  • Centro, a local media buying firm for local TV and newspaper site buys: $630,000
  • Ad networks:  $600,000 (including AOL’s Advertising.com, Collective Media, Undertone Networks, Burst Media, Quigo, DrivePM, Pulse360, Specific Media, and online video networks Broadband Enterprises and Tremor Media)
  • Facebook: $467,000 ($370,000 in September) 
  • Time Warner (most likely CNN.com): $337,000
  • Microsoft (MSN Search): $250,000
  • Politico: $146,000 
  • BET.com: $138,000
  • The Weather Channel Interactive (geo-targeting): $108,000 
  • Cox, which offers digital local media: $100,000
  • WashingtonPost.com: $100,000.
  • Community Connect, publisher of BlackPlanet.com: $61,000
  • Microsoft-owned in-game ad network Massive: $44,465 
  • NBA.com: $21,000 (all in September)
  • MySpace: $11,500:

 

 

Comparing the World Series to the US Presidential Election

I’m sad to say, I have no allegiance to either team in the World Series this year.  Which really kind of stinks, since I am desperate for something to root for.  (BTW, thank you Arizona Wildcats for pulling together a respectable football season and keeping me from sports harakare.)

So here I am, trying to decide who to support.  I mean, it’s 7 stupid games.  It shouldn’t be that hard to pick a team.  And through my logical analysis and emotional introspection I’ve used to try to pick a team, it suddenly dawned on me that this World Series is a microcosm of the US Presidential election.

Let’s look at the Phillies.  They have been a part of Major League Baseball forever, but yet have never quite been a team that everyone likes – or hates.  They aren’t the Cubs, Yankees or Red Sox, even though they’ve been around just as long.  They have produced some great players (Mike Schmidt, Larry Bowa, Tug McGraw), but also have some “not so special moments” (like Pete Rose crushing Ray Fosse in an All-Star game.)  And even when doing well, they’ve managed to annoy the press (Steve Carlton).  Basically, they’ve been around forever, and have gone through both good and bad years.  A few years ago, it looked like they had the big prize won, but then suffered an unexpected defeat to a team who ultimatley proved to not be worth supporting (Blue Jays).  Now they have a new squad with new people (Howard, Utley, Rollins, Hamill) but are still perceived as that “old” franchise with the ornery fans.

Now let’s examine the Rays.  On paper, this franchise is way too young to garner baseball’s greatest prize.  I mean, it’s quite an achievement for them to even make it to the final two, but can someone show me anything they’ve accomplished before 2008?  I know they had a lot of draft picks and a few experienced advisors, but until this year, these guys were simply idealists with a dream, and where heaven only lived on a whiteboard.  They have no real history, save for a few veterans who have never achieved any similar level of success anywhere else.  And yet, now Tampa Bay has die-hard, almost obsessive, fans who will shave their head and other body parts to support their team.  Every young fan – plus old fans who love a fairy tale story about achieving greatness in record time – has become a loud, proud Rays fan.

Now let’s look at how they got here.  While the Phillies breezed through their National League Primary, I mean Playoff, the Rays had to go to the late innings of Game 7, going toe to toe with an experienced, veteran, old school franchise that simply wouldn’t go away, even though it was apparent that they wouldn’t win.  In fact, the Rays had a chance to knock the Red Sox out in Game 5 – up 7-0 in the 7th – but then inexplicably the Red Sox had one huge run, and managed to make life complicated for everyone involved, until finally succumbing. 

So what do you think?  Who do you vote/root for this World Series….

5 Tips for Pitch Decks

I’ve started reading the Seattle 2.0 blog a little more regularly, especially now that people that I know and am friends with seem to be writing the bylines on a fairly regular basis.  

Anyway, I’ve been meaning to add the site to my blogroll for a while.  And this article written by the Alliance of Angels’ Rebecca Lovell is a good reason to send people over to check out the site.   Let me know if you disagree with any of Rebecca’s points.  

Reality TV for Your Web Browser

All you need is Yahoo Finance and a F5 button.  Refresh every minute or so, and watch the market change 50 points at a time.  Really fun.  Seriously, good times.  Thats a 900 point swing by the way from 9:30 to 3:30.

  

My First City Council Meeting Leaves Me Wondering

Last week, when I received my weekly Nick Licata newsletter
inviting me to attend a city council meeting in which he would attempt
to derail the Mercer Project, I nearly jumped out of my seat in glee. 
The enemy I have never met, mere months after successfully evicting the
Sonics from Seattle’s consciousness, now wanted to scuttle a project on
a road I drive almost every day.  

It went straight into my calendar, and I cleared my entire slate before and after.  What would I wear?  How
early should I get there?  Would there people to hang out with
afterwards?  I was looking forward to this as if Reckless Kelly was
coming to town.

I made it to City Hall in plenty of time to enjoy the fine array of
cheese and crackers expertly chosen by someone in the QFC Deli.  The
room was much nicer than I expected, kind of a smaller version of the
Benaroya Hall Lobby, but with about 20-25 circular tables.  I looked
for a table where  the smell of pituly would be the most faint, and
took a seat.

There were handouts and
displays, and I read them carefully, since after all, I wanted to make
sure I evaluated this with an open mind before rushing home to blast
the honorable Councilman.  The argument for the night’s meeting came
down to this.  Nick Licata wanted to take money that had already been
passed by the City Council for the Mercer Project (which eliminates the
so-called “Mercer Weave” off of I-5) and move that money to build some
sidewalks.  Each group presented handouts supporting their cause.  One
of the most damaging tables showed that with the new Mercer Project,
traffic time eastbound on Mercer would actually INCREASE by 8 minutes. 
I thought to myself, “Wow, that’s pretty damaging.  I’m sure the
Seattle DOT has a good piece of evidence to refute that.”

Then I noticed, that data came FROM the Seattle DOT.  That was known data.  Their actual plan was to spend $200 Million total, $43 Million from this budget, to INCREASE traffic times on the one road that connects North Downtown to I-5.

I found myself in the horrifying position that Nick Licata
could be right.  In an 8-1 vote for this project, he was the 1. And here it was, clear
as day.  Spending money to increase traffic time.

Then Licata got up and explained where that $43 Million
SHOULD go instead.  Sidewalks in North Seattle.  In neighborhoods I
would never visit.  Insane.  As evidence, he showed pictures of school kids
waiting for the bus on a street without a sidewalk.  $43 Million would
fix a few of these sidewalks.   My initial thought was that for
$10,000 we could log on to Google Maps, hire an intern from the UW
Civil Planning Department to figure out a better place for the bus to
stop, and still have $42.99 Million bucks to play with. 

The head of the SDOT got to speak next, and she gave an impassioned plea about how silly it was to do
the weave.  Yet incredibly, she did not address the issue of it taking
more time to drive eastbound.  Everyone seemed concerned with
“Connecting neighborhoods.”

Then all the civic groups got to speak.  This was painful. 
It was like the entire Nick Licata campaign committee had assumed new
identities and brought up pre-written speeches.  People like the
Vice-Treasurer of the Transportation Committee of Magnolia Senior
Citizen Brigade, the head of the North Aurora Avenue Small Business
Association, and something called Feet first, who apparently think we should all ride or walk to work.  They all had the same thing to say: “Money spent on
increasing traffic = Bad.  Money for sidewalks in my neighborhood =
Good.”

The only people who seemed to support the Mercer Project were the
people who lived in South Lake Union who liked the park and road
beautification (and incidentally wouldn’t actually ever have to drive
on Mercer for more than a block) and the Seattle City Council, 3 of
whom got up to explain why it was a good idea to slow down traffic down
the corridor, since at some point we were going to have to shut down 99
and we couldn’t have both projects going on at the same time.   I can’t
even come up with an analogy for this.  The only one who made even a
slightly convincing argument looked mysteriously like Bill Bavasi, and
if he had said he wanted to spend the $43 million on a 4 year contract
for a couple of light posts that were really really bright last year, I
would have sworn it was him.

So what is the end result?  Nick Licata might be right –
The Mercer Project certainly seems foolish.  But what’s even more
foolish is that this thing has been voted on like 3 or 4 times, and
keeps passing, yet never gets going.  The Sidewalk project is just the
latest diversion that shows how the Seattle Political Process can go
astray.  The equivalent of a spoiled brat not getting to go to
McDonald’s and refusing get in the car so the family could get  to
dinner at Pizza Hut.   It sounds like discussions will continue, and no progress will be made on anything.

It’s one of the few times I’ve been in a room and everyone
has been wrong.   Spending money to slow down traffic is like me
spending money to buy a car that will break down more.  Spending that
money on sidewalks is like me buying 43 pairs of shoes.  I’m no city
planner, and apparently no one on the Mercer Project is either, but
maybe they could work on a proposal that actually helped traffic flow
and beautified the neighborhood.  Surely this is not the only city in
the world that has had to figure out how to increase the number of
lanes in and out of downtown. (And btw, why doesn’t anyone ask why they
didn’t build sidewalks on those roads up north in the first place?)

I left the meeting dumbfounded, amused, sad, and completely understanding how the U.S. Congress could make such wacky decisions, given that City Councils can do no better on a much smaller scale. 
If you think you like to argue politics, and the way the world should
work, I urge you to attend one of these meetings in the future to see
how the wheels of motion get ground to a halt.

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